Grassroots groups scrambling to avoid Latino census undercount amid COVID-19, early cutoff

A caravan of 20 vehicles decorated with red and blue balloons left a west Phoenix church parking lot one recent Saturday evening.

For the next hour or so the vehicles drove through the predominantly Latino working class neighborhood with horns honking and people waving out the windows.

A band seated in the bed of a pickup truck played mariachi music. 

Neighborhood residents came outside to see what was going on.

Signs painted on the vehicles provided a clue: #census2020.

The July 24 caravan, and a second caravan that took place two days later in Chandler, marked the start of a final push by grassroots groups in Arizona to make sure Latino households don't again go uncounted in 2020 census, the federal government's decennial head count, after a large undercount in 2010.

The new coronavirus pandemic forced groups to scrap most in-person and door-to-door events, including census outreach efforts planned for dozens of Fiestas Patrias —festivals marking Mexican Independence Day on dieciséis de septiembre, the 16th of September. Many of those have since been canceled to avoid large gatherings of people. 

That left grassroots groups scrambling to find creative ways to reach Latino households and get them to fill out the census form. One idea was the vehicle caravans that took place in July, organized by the faith-based community group Corazon.

On Aug. 3, the Trump administration announced that census counting would end Sept. 30, four weeks earlier than planned.

A court hearing is set for Sept. 17 to determine whether the administration can lawfully wind down the count by that date.

SHORTENED DEADLINE IMPACTS: Shortened U.S. census deadline may disproportionately impact communities of color

The last-minute decision to cut short the census count has left grassroots groups with even less time to make sure Latino households are counted and has forced them to cancel events planned in October, including more census vehicle caravans that had been planned in connection with the celebration of Hispanic Heritage Month.

The abrupt decision to end the count early has added to concerns that the Trump administration has deliberately tried to suppress Latinos and other minority groups from filling out the census.

With less than three weeks until census counting ends, grassroots groups face a monumental challenge: avoiding another large undercount of Latinos, who make up a third of Arizona's population.

"We are not doing very well," said Anakarina Rodriguez, Arizona census campaign manager for the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials. 

NALEO has been helping grassroots groups by analyzing census data to identify census tracts with self-response rates below 50%. The data is shared with grassroots groups so they can target outreach efforts to Latinos and other communities of color in those areas.

The most recent census data shows that just 62.3% of households in Arizona have self-completed the census form either online or by phone. That is below the 65.6% national self-response rate and ranks 31st out of 50 states.

Every household has the option of filling out the census form online, by phone or by mail. The Census Bureau also sends enumerators to knock on the doors of households that haven't filled out the form, but those efforts also have been hampered by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Arizona's overall response rate of 80.8% ranks as fifth worst of the 50 states, according to census data as of Sept. 10.

Meanwhile, Maricopa, Arizona's most populous county, had a 66.2% self-response rate, as of Sept. 10. But census data shows that many predominantly Latino census tracks within Maricopa County have self-response rates of 50% or lower.

"We still have a lot to do to ensure a full and accurate account from now until the end of this month," Rodriguez said. "The deadline is now Sept. 30 and we are still seeing lagging self-response rates."

A lot is at stake for Latinos, other hard-to-count communities

Latinos tend to live in multi-unit buildings and other places that are harder to count than non-Latinos. Latinos also are more likely to live in multi-generational households, which are harder to count because Latinos sometimes fail to include young children, grandparents and other relatives who may be living in the same household when filling out the form, advocates say.

A 2016 NALEO report estimated 32,000 Latino children alone in Arizona went uncounted in the 2010 census, the vast majority of them in Maricopa County.

Some advocates blame the 2010 undercount of Latinos in Arizona on fear generated by Senate Bill 1070, the immigration law former Gov. Jan Brewer signed in April 2010, and former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio's immigration raids.

Census population counts are used to allocate congressional seats, with states such as Arizona with growing populations standing to gain seats at the expense of states with declining populations.

The census also is used to distribute billions of dollars in federal funding used by states for a wide range of services including highway construction, state public water systems, schools and programs such as emergency services, substance abuse treatment, Medicare, and Head Start.

An undercount in 2020 could cost Arizona, a state with a high number of Latinos and other hard-to-count communities, hundreds of millions of dollars in federal funding over the next decade, according to a February University of Arizona report. 

It could lead to unequal political representation and unequal access to public and private resources for Latinos and other hard-to-count groups.

This is the first time the census form has been offered online.

A recent Somos UnidosUS survey of Latinos showed that 29% of Latinos in Arizona still hadn't filled out the census, compared to 24% nationally. Among the Arizona Latinos who said they hadn't filled out the census form, 47% said they hadn't received a postcard invitation to fill out the census form online. Another 15% said they hadn't filled out the form because they did not want to share information with the federal government.

Some of that fear stems from the Trump administration's attempt to add a citizenship question on the census, said Clarissa Martinez, deputy vice president at UnidosUS, a national civil rights organization. 

The Trump administration ultimately dropped the fight in July 2019 amid a protracted legal battled and after the Supreme Court temporarily blocked the administration from adding a citizenship question.

Even so, Martinez believes the mere attempt to add a citizenship question was part of a strategy by the Trump administration to sow "confusion, chaos and intimidation" to discourage Latino households from filling out the census, especially households that include immigrants, to stymie their growing political influence.

More recently, Trump signed in July a memorandum that undocumented immigrants should not be counted as part of the census for allocating congressional seats. A court also blocked that attempt.

"People may decide not to count themselves in the census because of that confusion and intimidation that (Trump) is trying to stir up," Martinez said. 

Vianey Celestino, the Phoenix U.S. Census Bureau partner specialist, said the bureau's mission is to count every person living in the U.S. regardless of their immigration status.

She acknowledged the COVID-19 pandemic has made it especially hard to reach Latinos and other hard-to-count communities.

As a result, the Census Bureau has adopted new strategies at the last minute to reach those communities, including partnering with grassroots groups to organize phone banks, drive-thru events and other virtual and non-contact efforts.

"So we have been adapting. Everything has changed with the coronavirus," Celestino said.

Volunteers get the word out, text message by text message

Yolanda Medina sat at a desk in her apartment one recent evening furiously clicking a computer mouse.

With each mouse click, Medina sent a computer-generated text message to the cellphone of each person living in a predominantly Latino census tract in Maricopa County.

"Have you filled out the 2020 census. You have until 9/30 to respond. Take 10 minutes to get counted," the text message said, followed by a link to a census website to fill out the form online.

Medina is the census coordinator for One Arizona, a coalition of 26 grassroots groups.

Medina was one of about 27 people, mostly volunteers, participating that day in a "virtual text bank" to reach out to Latino households in Maricopa County and urge them to fill out the 2020 census. Ten of the volunteers were sending out text messages in Spanish.

The participants sat in their own homes but could see each other using a video conferencing program similar to Zoom. To foster a sense of community, the participants listened to music by the late Tejano singer Selena over the video conferencing program while they sent out text messages.

The virtual text banks have replaced some the in-person events grassroots groups had been planning before the coronavirus pandemic hit and have ramped up as the deadline to fill out the census draws near.

"We would have been out (in neighborhoods) talking to people on the ground," Medina said in between mouse clicks and words of encouragement to the other participants, such as "Great job, y'all."

Other non-contact census outreach efforts include bilingual public service announcements on radio and social media. Several drive-thru census events held in conjunction with citizenship drives and food distribution sites have also been held, where census workers are on hand to provide information or help people fill out the census form online.

The census bureau has been mailing census forms at the last minute to households that have not responded online.

Tuesday's text bank was scheduled to last from 4 p.m. to 7 p.m. But by 6 p.m., the participants had sent 170,000 text messages, reaching the allotment of cellphone numbers that had been preloaded into the computer program.

So after raffling off two $20 Target gift cards to participants who had stuck it out until the end, organizers pulled the plug on the text bank one hour early.

Medina received only a few responses from the nearly 4,000 text messages she sent out that night.

One person responded: "Yes, Done."

With a few clicks on her mouse, Medina sent back another computer-generated response.

"Thank you. Please remind your friends and family to complete the 2020 census, too."

Just before signing off, Medina noticed someone else had texted, "Nope" they hadn't filled out the census form yet.

"No worries," Medina responded with another computer-generated text message. "You can get started by calling 844-330-2020," the phone number for the 2020 census assistance line.

Republic reporter Rafael Carranza contributed to this article.

Did you get your U.S. census postcard?

The U.S. Census Bureau is congressionally mandated to count every person living in the U.S. every 10 years, regardless of age or immigration status. For the 2020 census, the bureau mailed postcards with a special code to every household in the country inviting them to fill out the decennial census online. But if you didn't receive a postcard or lost it, you can still fill out the census form by calling 844-330-2020 or online at: https://2020census.gov/en/ways-to-respond.html

Here are some upcoming events where you can also get help:

Citizenship Day, Voter Registration and Census Drive-Thru

When: Saturday, Sept. 12, 2020, 10 a.m. to 1 p.m.

Where: Neighborhood Ministries, 1918 W. Van Buren St, Phoenix, AZ 85009.

What: A coordinated effort to help newly naturalized U.S citizens register to vote, fill out the census, and celebrate Citizenship Day.

AZ Pacific Islanders Appreciation and Census Assistance Day

When: Saturday, Sept. 12, 2020, 10 a.m. to 2 p.m.

Where: First Samoan Congregation Christian Church, 3118 N. 41st Ave. Phoenix, AZ 85019.

What: Join AZ Pacific Islander Appreciation and Census Assistance Day. Free shaved ice will be provided and the city of Phoenix census van will be there to assist you in filling out the census questionnaire.

Celebrate Your Presence/Celebra tu Presencia

Hosted by OneAZ, Census Counts and NALEO.

When: Monday, Sept. 14, 2020, 4 p.m. to 7 p.m.

What: Text bank to urge and assist Latino households to fill out the census form.

To register: https://www.mobilize.us/civilrights/event/320555/

Voter Registration Day: Drive-In Movie

Hosted by the Voteria AZ Campaign

What: First-ever drive-in event in conjunction with national voter registration day to provide assistance registering to vote or getting on the early ballot mailing list. Volunteers We will also be answering questions about the census and how to take part before the deadline. Event will end with a movie showing.

When: Sept. 22, 2020, 4:30 p.m. to 9 p.m.

Where: West Wind Glendale Drive-In, 5650 N 55th Ave, Glendale, AZ 85301.

Reach the reporter at daniel.gonzalez@arizonarepublic.com or at 602-444-8312. Follow him on Twitter @azdangonzalez.

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